Two big announcements are being made on Tuesday. The first, completely irrelevant to this post, announcement is that of Rugby League Licences (Bearded is supporting Castleford), the second, less predictable announcement, is that of this year’s Nationwide Mercury Prize (it’s the Mercury Music Prize to those of us not fussed with sponsorship-led name changes).

Last year, the awards were quite embarrassing for the British independents with only a sprinkling of indie albums making it on the shortlist (although indies have accounted for four of the past five winners) and this year I am almost convinced that the awards will go for the big names (a habit introduced with sponsored naming rights interestingly enough). As a result, I’m going to have a stab at the worst (but most honest - probably) prediction for the list. I don’t expect many of these records to get a mention come 11.30am tomorrow, but it’d be nice if they were:

Early favourite: Jamie Lidell - Jim (Warp)
Not a hugely controversial choice and to be honest, the main one in my batch that I would expect to get a nomination. After the panel overlooked the fabulous Multiply for a nomination in 2005, Jamie has gone even more soulful. Although panned by the majority of the mainstream music press, ‘Jim’ and its horrible title has been picking up very positive backing by the underground press. An early, quite realistic candidate for a winner in my eyes.

Actual candidate: Almost undoubtedly Radiohead - In Rainbows (XL)

Obsure, non-selling jazz record: Portico Quartet - Knee-deep in the North Sea (Babel)
I wish Soiled Mattress & the Springs were British because they would have run away with this for me. Instead it is the London South Bank buskers who get the nod. A fabulous record, not surprisingly really as the F-IRE collective and Babel labels have been doing great business in the jazz resurgence of the past few years.

Actual candidate: What’s Seb Rochford been up to all year?

Independent indie darlings: Wild Beasts - Limbo, Panto (Domino)
Inevitably Domino will have to have someone on the list. They’ve claimed three of the last five awards and not surprisingly with such an eclectic roster of quality artists and NME/Radio One favourites. Who better than the Kendal boys with song titles such as ‘Brave Bulging Buoyant Clairvoyants’ to stake the claim this time around? Probably the actual candidate.

Actual candidate: Put your mortgage on The Last Shadow Puppets - The Age of the Understatement (Domino)

Psuedo-electronic ‘alternative’ record: Christopher D Ashley - Cruel Romantics (Sunday Best)
The fantastic record from Sunday Best’s Ashley actually has a very remote outside chance of squeezing in tomorrow. The label has been building a good reputation for itself (admittedly largely due to Rob da Bank’s involvement) and a word here and there could see it included in the list. Not a hope in hell of winning though, however much it might be deserving.

Actual candidate: Hot Chip - Made in the Dark (EMI)

Undoubted candidate, unlikely winner: Ed Cox - Clowncore (Life4Land)
One of the best albums of the year so far, accordion, jungle and hardcore dance mix together for a seriously delicious record. If he didn’t scare us by dressing up as a clown, Ed Cox would be our new best friend.

Actual candidate: Give it up for The Ting Tings - We Started Nothing (Columbia/SonyBMG)

Flavour of the moment:
Caz Mechanic - The Secret Life of the Wife of the Captain of the Ship in the Bottle on the Mantle Piece (Big Potato)
Holton’s Opulent Oog - The Problem of Knowledge (Big Potato)
Big Potato have done great things in the past year. Two folk records that differ wildly have come from their cabbage patch and driven the few people who have managed to hear them wild. Caroline Banks has a beautifully soulful voice, exquisite pop songs, long album titles and a kazoo. Holton has an Oog - a different world that will have you transfixed, possibly a bit teary-eyed but most definitely putting the stunning 7-minute ‘Oaki Room’ on repeat. Buy them both…

Actual candidate: Amy Macdonald - This is the Life (Vertigo)

Obviously twelve will be announced on Tuesday, maybe the twelve I’ve mentioned here? Out of the ‘actual candidates’ I’ve predicted, it is nice to see a number of them on independent labels, perhaps this could be a good year for the indies after all. We’ll find out tomorrow.

Gareth Main